Rationale and protocol for a prospective cohort study of respiratory viral infections in patients admitted from emergency departments of community hospitals: Effect of respiratory Virus infection on EmeRgencY admission (EVERY) study.

INTRODUCTION: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a causative virus for the common cold worldwide and can result in hospitalisations and even death in patients with high-risk conditions and older adults. However, the relationship between RSV or other incidental respiratory infections and acute exacerbations of underlying conditions has not been well investigated. The primary objective of this study is to estimate RSV prevalence, risk factors for adverse outcomes or hospitalisation and their effect on the hospital course of patients with acute respiratory symptoms admitted from emergency departments. Furthermore, we evaluate the prevalence of other respiratory viruses associated with respiratory symptoms. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We are conducting a multicentre prospective cohort study in Japan. We plan to enrol 3000 consecutive patients admitted from emergency departments with acute respiratory symptoms or signs from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2024. A nasopharyngeal swab is obtained within 24 hours of admission and the prevalence of RSV and other respiratory viruses is measured using the FilmArray Respiratory 2.1 panel. Paired serum samples are collected from patients with suspected lower respiratory infections to measure RSV antibodies at admission and 30 days later. Information on patients' hospital course is retrieved from the electronic medical records at discharge, death or 30 days after admission. Furthermore, information on readmission to the hospital and all-cause mortality is collected 180 days after admission. We assess the differences in clinical outcomes between patients with RSV or other respiratory viruses and those without, adjusting for baseline characteristics. Clinical outcomes include in-hospital mortality, length of hospital stay, disease progression, laboratory tests and management of respiratory symptoms or underlying conditions. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study protocol was approved by the institutional review boards of participating hospitals. Our study reports will be published in academic journals as well as international meetings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05913700.

Outbreaks Following Natural Disasters: A Review of the Literature.

Understanding the relationship between infectious disease outbreaks and natural disasters is important in developing response and disaster risk reduction strategies. The aim of this study was to identify outbreaks associated with natural disasters during the past 20 y, and outline risk factors and mechanisms for postdisaster outbreaks. Review of the international disaster database (EM-DAT) and systematic review of the literature were conducted. The records of disaster events in EM-DAT during the past 20 y were screened. A literature search was carried out in the databases PubMed and Embase. Articles in English language published between 2000 and 2020 were searched. Data were extracted from articles and Narrative synthesis was used to summarize the findings. We found 108 events associated with epidemics, the majority being floods. We found 36 articles, most of them focused on outbreaks after floods. Risk factors and mechanisms that contributed to the outbreaks were mainly related to the consequences of disaster and its impact on the environment and living conditions of population. Infrastructure readiness and postdisaster measures play important roles in controlling the spread of epidemics after natural disasters. More evidence and research are required for better understanding of the association between natural disasters and infectious diseases outbreaks.

Valuing Human Impact of Natural Disasters: A Review of Methods.

This paper provides a comprehensive set of methodologies that have been used in the literature to give a monetary value to the human impact in a natural disaster setting. Four databases were searched for relevant published and gray literature documents with a set of inclusion and exclusion criteria. Twenty-seven studies that quantified the value of a statistical life in a disaster setting or discussed methodologies of estimating value of life were included. Analysis highlighted the complexity and variability of methods and estimations of values of statistical life. No single method to estimate the value of a statistical life is universally agreed upon, although stated preference methods seem to be the preferred approach. The value of one life varies significantly ranging from USD 143,000 to 15 million. While an overwhelming majority of studies concern high-income countries, most disaster casualties are observed in low- and middle-income countries. Data on the human impact of disasters are usually available in disasters databases. However, lost lives are not traditionally translated into monetary terms. Therefore, the full financial cost of disasters has rarely been evaluated. More research is needed to utilize the value of life estimates in order to guide policymakers in preparedness and mitigation policies.

Human insecurity and child deaths in conflict: evidence for improved response in Yemen.

BACKGROUND: Since the beginning of the ongoing conflict in Yemen, >23 000 air strikes and >100 000 fatalities have been recorded. Data from Yemen Data Project linked >1300 child fatalities and >900 child injuries to air raids. However, there is little literature on the effect of the protracted armed conflict on the pattern of child mortality using data from small-scale surveys. We aimed to identify the pattern of the death rate for children aged <5 years ('under-5') and its relationship with human insecurity in Yemen. METHODS: We created a human insecurity index (i.e. severely insecure vs insecure) for the 22 governorates in Yemen from 2015 to 2019, using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Database. We matched this insecurity index with the corresponding under-5 mortality data from the Complex Emergency Database. We analysed the relationship between the under-5 death rate (U5DR) and the insecurity level using a Bayesian finite mixture model in order to account for unobserved heterogeneity in clustered finite subsets of a population. RESULTS: We extracted 72 surveys and 77.8% (n = 56) were included in this study. The mean of the recall period for mortality was 106 days with a standard deviation of 93 days. We identified two subpopulations: Subpopulation I-high average number of child deaths and Subpopulation II-low average number of child deaths. The log posterior mean of the U5DR is 1.10 (95% credible intervals: 0.36, 1.82) in the severely insecure group in Subpopulation I and 3-fold the estimate in Subpopulation II. However, in Subpopulation II, we found no association between the insecurity level and the U5DR. CONCLUSION: The pattern of child deaths is crucial in understanding the relationship between human insecurity and the U5DR.

"Recovering, not recovered" Hospital disaster resilience: a case-study from the 2015 earthquake in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Disasters are an increasing threat to human health, but we know little about their impact on health services, particularly in low and middle-income settings. 'Resilient hospitals' have been increasingly recognized as a cornerstone of disaster management. While various frameworks of hospital resilience exist, they emerged from pre-disaster considerations, and do not incorporate evidence from post-disaster settings. OBJECTIVE: This dissertation investigated the impact of a large-scale sudden onset disaster in a tertiary hospital in Nepal, and explored its resilience mechanisms. METHODOLOGY: This consists of an in-depth case-study combining quantitative data from routinely generated hospital records and qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with hospital staff. We used both advanced statistical methods and mixed inductive and deductive coding to analyze the data. RESULTS: Most of the admitted earthquake victims required surgical interventions and long hospitalizations, considerably straining the hospital. For six weeks, the average number of daily admissions decreased. During this period, the share of injury-related admissions was particularly high, and such admissions were particularly long compared to the baseline. Admissions due to other conditions relatively decreased and were shorter. We found that the hospital's resilience was highly dependent on emerging adaptations, in addition to the pre-existing disaster plan. Individual resilience of staff also played a major role, and was influenced by senses of safety, meaningfulness, and belonging. CONCLUSION: Hospitals should prepare resources and plan for their known disaster risks, but should also allow for a certain flexibility to innovative adaptions to emerging, unforeseen challenges. Challenges faced by hospital workers should not be undermined, and addressing them will increase hospital resilience.

Hospital Resilience After the 2015 Earthquake in Nepal: Results From Semi-structured Interviews With Hospital Staff.

Background: Resilient hospitals are increasingly recognized as a cornerstone of disaster reduction in global policies such as the Sendai Framework for Action. However, current hospital resilience frameworks emerged from pre-disaster conceptualizations, and have not been verified in real-life disaster contexts nor in the frontlines. Our aim was to study a tertiary hospital's resilience after the 2015 earthquake in Nepal, as experienced by its staff. Methods: We undertook a qualitative study in the Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital (TUTH), where we conducted 18 semi-structured interviews with hospital staff. We inductively created themes to describe the earthquake burden to the hospital, and to analyze individual resilience of hospital staff. In addition, we deductively documented the resilience of the hospital as a system, according to the system resilience dimensions: means of resilience (redundancy and resourcefulness), and ends of resilience (robustness and rapidity). Results: In terms of robustness, TUTH increased its capacity for earthquake victims as elective activities were temporarily interrupted and quality of care was not a priority. Three stages of rapidity were identified: critical rapidity to address immediate needs, stabilizing rapidity until the hospital re-started routine activities, and recovery rapidity. In addition to the disaster plan, emerging adaptations played a major role in redundancy and resourcefulness. We found that individual resilience depended on three determinants: safety, meaningfulness, and sense of belonging. Conclusions: Hospital resilience results from a complexity of emerging and planned adaptations, as well as from interdependencies with individual resilience. Frameworks and plans to improve hospital resilience must reflect flexibility of response, and a concern for well-being of hospital staff is central for sustainable disaster response and improved resilience.

Changes in patient admissions after the 2015 Earthquake: a tertiary hospital-based study in Kathmandu, Nepal.

Literature on earthquake impact on hospital admissions is lacking, particularly in low-resource settings. Our aim was to study the pattern of admissions before and after the 2015 earthquake in a tertiary hospital in Nepal. We used routine hospital data from 9,596 admissions, and defined four periods: pre-earthquake (pre-EQ), acute (EQ1), post-acute (EQ2), and post-earthquake (post-EQ). We compared length of hospital stay (LOS) across the study periods using negative binomial regressions. We used logistic regressions to study changes in probability of admission for diagnostic categories, and Generalized Additive Models to model the difference in number of admissions compared to pre-EQ baseline. LOS was longer in EQ1 than during pre-EQ, in particular for injury-related admissions. In EQ1, the odds of injury admissions increased, while they decreased for the majority of other diagnoses, with the odds of pregnancy-related admissions remaining low until post-EQ. The number of admissions dropped in EQ1 and EQ2, and returned to pre-EQ trends in post-EQ, accumulating 381 admissions lost (CI: 206-556). Our findings suggest that hospital disaster plans must not only foresee injury management after earthquakes, but also ensure accessibility, in particular for pregnant women, and promote a quick return to normality to prevent additional negative health outcomes.

Impact of mass vaccination campaigns on measles transmission during an outbreak in Guinea, 2017.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the time-dependent measles effective reproduction number (Rt) as an indicator of the impact of three outbreak response vaccination (ORV) campaigns on measles transmission during a nationwide outbreak in Guinea. METHODS: Rt represents the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a partially immune population during a given time period. Measles Rt was estimated using daily incidence data for 3952 outbreak-associated measles cases in Guinea in 2017 for the time periods prior to, between, and following each of three ORV campaigns using a simple and extensible mathematical model. RESULTS: Rt was estimated to be above the threshold value of 1 during the initial growth period of the outbreak until the first ORV campaign began on March 13 (Rt = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.55-1.67). It subsequently dropped below 1 and remained <1 through the end of the year (range: 0.71-0.91), although low levels of transmission persisted. CONCLUSIONS: Reduction in Rt coincided with implementation of the ORV campaigns, indicating success of the campaigns at maintaining measles transmission intensity below epidemic growth levels. However, persistent measles transmission remains an issue in Guinea due to insufficient levels of herd immunity. Estimation of Rt should be further leveraged to help decision makers and field staff understand outbreak progress and the timing and type of vaccination efforts needed to halt transmission.

Clinical and demographic profile of admitted victims in a tertiary hospital after the 2015 earthquake in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, an earthquake killing 9,000 and injuring 22,000 people hit Nepal. The Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital (TUTH), a reference tertiary hospital, was operational immediately after the earthquake. We studied the profile of earthquake victims admitted in TUTH and assessed what factors could influence hospital length of stay. METHODS: An earthquake victim dataset was created based on patient records, with information on sex, age, date of admission and discharge, diagnosis, and surgical intervention. We performed an initial descriptive overview of the earthquake victims followed by a time-to-event analysis to compare length of hospital stay in different groups, using log rank test and cox regression to calculate Hazard Ratios. RESULTS: There were in total 501 admitted victims, with the peak of admissions occurring on the fifth day after the earthquake. About 89% had injury as main diagnosis, mostly in lower limbs, and 66% of all injuries were fractures. Nearly 69% of all patients underwent surgery. The median length of hospital stay was 10 days. Lower limb and trunk injuries had longer hospital stays than injuries in the head and neck (HR = 0.68, p = 0.009, and HR = 0.62 p = 0.005, respectively). Plastic surgeries had longer hospital stays than orthopaedic surgeries (HR = 0.57 p = 0.006). Having a crush injury and undergoing an amputation also increased time to discharge (HR = 0.57, p = 0.013, and HR = 0.65 p = 0.045 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Hospital stay was particularly long in this sample in comparison to other studies on earthquake victims, indirectly indicating the high burden TUTH had to bear to treat these patients. To strengthen resilience, tertiary hospitals should have preparedness plans to cope with a large influx of injured patients after a large-scale disaster, in particular for the initial days when there is limited external aid.

Assessment of the Capacity and Capability of Burn Centers to Respond to Burn Disasters in Belgium: A Mixed-Method Study.

Burn disaster is defined as a massive influx of patients that exceeds a burn center's capacity and capability. This study investigates the capacity and capability of burn centers to respond to burn disasters in the Belgian ground. Quantitative survey and qualitative semistructured interview questionnaires were administered directly to key informants of burn centers. The data collected from both methods were compared to get a more in-depth overview of the issue. Quantitative data were converted into a narrative to enrich the qualitative data and included in the thematic analysis. Finally, data from both methods were analyzed and organized into five themes. The Belgian Association of Burn Injury (BABI) has a specific prehospital plan for burn disaster management. Once the BABI Plan is activated, all burn centers respond as one entity. Burn Team (B-Team) is a professional team that is formed in case of urgent need and it is deployed to a scene or to nonburn specialized hospitals to help in disaster relief. The challenges for burn disasters response occur particularly in the area of triage, transfer, communication, funding, and training. We conclude that there is a variation in the capacity and capability of burn centers. Overall, the system of burn disaster management is advanced and it is comparable to other high-income countries. Nevertheless, further improvement in the areas of preparation, triage, communication, and finally training would make disaster response more resilient in the future. Therefore, there is still space for further improvement of the management of burn disasters in Belgium.